The NRCS has released it’s Water Supply Outlook Report for April 2016. The summary chart for the Upper Clark Fork basin can be viewed here. Their Nevada creek forecast is for 88-89% of normal streamflow for the April-May and April-July periods. Actual observations of current conditions in our drainage would suggest that this forecast is somewhat optimistic.
I have done some comparisons of our current conditions (reservoir storage, snowpack levels, flow forecasts) with recent previous years. At this point in time the 2016 irrigation season is looking to be very similar with 2013. If interested, you can view my comparison chart of April 1 conditions for the 2013, 2015, and 2016 (current) seasons. In 2013, we had to restrict the availability of contract water, beginning the irrigation season with an allotment of 70% of total contract, and then later increasing that allotment to 85%.
As of April 8th, we would have to see an average total reservoir inflow of 104 cfs through the remainder of April in order to achieve full capacity by May 1st. Barring any major precipitation events, this is obviously not going to occur. While it is still too early to make a determination of what the water supply will be on May 1st, irrigators should plan on lower than normal streamflows to be available for appropriated water rights, and some degree of restriction on contracted water. A determination of available contract water will be provided by May 1, the opening day for contract water delivery.